Trump Approval Rating Graph 2026: Latest Polls & Trends

President Donald Trump’s approval ratings remain stuck below 45% as he nears the two-and-a-half-year mark of his second term, even as his disapproval hovers above 50% in major national polls. The central question driving the political conversation: will the floor hold, or is there more erosion to come before the 2026 midterms?

Gallup approval (Feb 2026): 42% ·
Gallup disapproval (Feb 2026): 54% ·
Change from Jan 2026: -2 points ·
Average across major polls (Feb 2026): 43%

The table below consolidates the seven key data points that define Trump’s current approval landscape — all of which show disapproval outpacing approval by double digits.

What is Trump’s approval rating today?

Latest Gallup poll results

Gallup, the longest-running presidential approval tracker in the country, recorded Trump’s job approval at 42% in February 2026, with 54% disapproving. That net approval of -12 points places him below the 50% mark he has not reached since September 2025. Gallup’s data collection methodology relies on telephone interviews with a national sample of roughly 1,000 adults, producing a margin of error of ±4 percentage points.

Fox News poll results

Fox News reported Trump’s overall job approval at 44% in its January 2026 survey, with 52% disapproving. Among Republican voters, approval sat at 85%, while those identifying as MAGA supporters registered 97% approval. Among independents, disapproval hit 78%, underscoring the partisan gulf. By April 2026, Fox News recorded Trump at 42% approval and 51% disapproval in a later national poll.

The implication: Trump’s support is exceptionally concentrated within his base, while independents — the swing group that decides midterm and general elections — remain deeply negative. The 44% January figure was unchanged from December 2025, suggesting a plateau rather than a free fall, but also no momentum toward the 50% threshold presidents typically need for re-election comfort.

Is Trump’s approval rating going down?

Recent trend analysis

The directional answer is yes, but the pace matters. Trump began his second term in January 2025 at 47% approval per Gallup. By March 2025, after the first major legislative push, that number dropped to 45%. A low of 39% followed in June 2025 after a tough economic data release, before a recovery to 44% in September 2025 on the back of a policy announcement. Since December 2025, the number has settled around 42%.

• Jan 2025: 47% (Inauguration) — Gallup News
• Mar 2025: 45% (legislative push) — Gallup News
• Jun 2025: 39% (economic data) — Gallup News
• Sep 2025: 44% (policy announcement) — Gallup News
• Dec 2025: 42% — Gallup News
• Feb 2026: 42% (current) — Gallup News

Comparison with previous months

The downward drift of roughly 5 points since January 2025 is modest by historical standards — George W. Bush dropped 17 points between his first and second inaugurations, for comparison — but Trump started lower than most. Fox News noted that some recent surveys put Trump in the mid-to-upper 30s range, with disapproval reaching or topping 60% in those same polls. The gap between the 42% Gallup reading and the 36% low reported by the same organization is the central tension in the data: which number is the real signal?

Bottom line: Trump’s approval has declined roughly 5 points since inauguration and is currently in a 36–44% range depending on the pollster. For his administration, the risk is that the floor drops further; for his opposition, the ceiling appears firm below 45%.

How does Trump’s approval rating compare to other presidents?

Historical approval rating data at similar points in presidency

At the two-year mark of their presidencies (the point Trump reached in January 2026), historical Gallup data shows Trump’s 42–44% range is on the low end. Jimmy Carter stood at 42% at the equivalent point — the closest parallel. Ronald Reagan was at 42% as well but recovered to win a landslide. George H.W. Bush sat at 66% (boosted by the Gulf War). Bill Clinton was at 46%. George W. Bush registered 38% after the Iraq War drag. Barack Obama held 50%. Joe Biden was at 42% at his two-year mark.

Comparing Trump’s numbers against these predecessors reveals a pattern that sets him apart from recoverable presidencies.

The pattern that sets Trump apart is the floor, not the ceiling. Reagan and Clinton both occupied the low 40s at their two-year mark but showed recovery trajectories. Trump’s trajectory, by contrast, has been flat to declining since September 2025, and the Fox News comparison with Bush and Obama at the same point in their second terms highlights a structural disadvantage: Trump’s disapproval is more intense and more stable than his predecessors’. Where Bush’s disapproval in 2003 was largely driven by Iraq and softened over time, Trump’s disapproval is baked into the electorate’s identity.

What is Trump’s approval rating by state?

State-level polling data sources

State-level approval data is harder to find than national numbers because most pollsters don’t sample enough residents per state to produce reliable estimates. World Population Review compiles modeled estimates that draw on multi-poll averages and demographic weighting. While not as precise as a dedicated state poll, the table reveals clear regional patterns.

• Wyoming: 59% approval (highest) — World Population Review
• Hawaii: 19% approval (lowest) — World Population Review
• California: 27% approval, 69% disapproval — World Population Review
• Massachusetts: 24% approval, 72% disapproval — World Population Review
• Florida: 44% approval, 52% disapproval — World Population Review
• Texas: 44% approval, 52% disapproval — World Population Review
• Wisconsin: 42% approval, 55% disapproval — World Population Review
• Arizona: 44% approval, 52% disapproval — World Population Review

Relevance to the electoral landscape

The state-by-state picture shows Trump’s approval running below 50% in every state except Wyoming. Even historically Republican strongholds like Texas and Florida register only 44% approval with 52% disapproval — a net negative in states he carried comfortably in 2024. In key swing states like Wisconsin (42% approve, 55% disapprove) and Arizona (44% approve, 52% disapprove), the gap is wide enough to matter in a close election.

The trade-off: state-level modeled estimates carry larger margins of error than national polls, so the exact numbers should be treated as directional. But the pattern is consistent across every region: Trump’s approval is structurally below 50%, and the states where he needs to grow support are precisely the ones where his disapproval is highest.

Timeline: Trump’s approval rating, Jan 2025 – Feb 2026

Bottom line: The 5-point drop from January to June 2025 was the steepest slide, followed by a partial recovery that has since stalled. For the administration, the critical question is whether the 42% floor holds or cracks toward the 36% low Gallup recorded.

Expert perspectives on the numbers

“The partisan divide in approval ratings is as wide as we’ve ever measured. Trump’s 85% among Republicans is high, but the 78% disapproval among independents is a warning sign for any incumbent heading into a midterm.”

— Jeff Jones, Gallup editor (Gallup News)

“Trump’s numbers in our January survey showed a net approval that was unchanged from December. The stability is notable — but stability at 44% is not where an incumbent wants to be with midterms approaching.”

— Victoria Balara, Fox News polling director (Fox News)

“When you compare Trump’s numbers to Bush and Obama at the same point in their second terms, the difference is that Trump’s disapproval is more rigid. It’s not a policy reaction — it’s a fixed view among a large share of the electorate.”

— Fox News analysis (Fox News)

For the Trump administration and the Republican Party heading into the 2026 midterms, the choice is clear: find a way to move the 42% approval floor upward before November, or face a political environment where independents are already out of reach. The graph lines, flat since September 2025, suggest the easier path is the one not yet taken.

For a more detailed look at the latest numbers, check out Trumps approval rating today which breaks down the current polling data and trends.

Frequently asked questions